Polls

Where the polls come from

Every row in the table is a real, published poll from a named pollster, recorded exactly as the pollster reported it — we never round, re-weight, or estimate a number. Each row links to its source. Polls we could not verify at a working source are left out entirely. Partisan-sponsored polls and small subsamples are labeled where they appear.

How the average works

The snapshot at the top is a simple, transparent average — deliberately less clever than a forecast:

• It uses national primary polls from the last 75 days.
• If a pollster released more than one poll in that window, only their most recent counts — so prolific pollsters can't dominate the average.
• Every qualifying poll counts equally. We do not weight by sample size, "house effects," or pollster ratings — those adjustments can be better, but they require editorial judgment calls we'd rather not hide inside a number.
• A figure must appear in at least 2 qualifying polls to be shown, and undecideds are not redistributed.

The average is computed live in your browser from the same poll list shown in the table — there is no second, hidden dataset. "±" spread next to each name shows the lowest and highest result across qualifying polls: a wide spread means pollsters genuinely disagree.

Why early polls deserve skepticism

Two years out, primary polling mostly tracks who voters have heard of. Historically, early front-runners often fade (and eventual nominees often poll in single digits at this stage). Small subsamples of "likely primary voters" carry large margins of error — a 6-point gap on a 400-person subsample is close to statistical noise. And polls of adults behave differently from polls of registered or likely voters; we label each poll's population so you can compare like with like.

What gets a label

note flags on rows mark small subsamples, adults-only samples, partisan-aligned pollsters, and anything else a careful reader should discount. Unscientific straw polls are excluded from this page entirely (they appear on the tracker clearly marked, where they're treated as organizing signals, not polling).